Property Valuation For Properties With Mixed-use Developments And Retail Tenants – John Mishke, Ryan Luby, Brian Vickery, Jonathan Woetzel, Olivia White, Aditya Singhvi, Ginny Rahi, Anna Fu, Rob Palter, Andre Dua, Sven Summitt
The real estate sector in major cities around the world has not kept up with the changes in behavior caused by the pandemic. The lives of cities are at risk and they must adapt.
Property Valuation For Properties With Mixed-use Developments And Retail Tenants
When the COVID-19 pandemic began, it radically changed the way people work, live and shop in cities around the world. The most fundamental change was where and how they worked. Obeying lockdowns and office closures, fed up with uncomfortable masks and enabled by remote work technology, many employees have suddenly abandoned traditional offices and started working from home. Many of these employees, recently freed from their daily commute, chose to leave the urban centers. And now that fewer of them worked and lived near urban stores, fewer of them shopped there. In recent months, some of these behavioral changes have subsided. Others persist, particularly among office workers who continue to work hybrid (ie, a combination of remote and in-office work).
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Behavioral changes have already had a significant impact on real estate in “superstar” cities. In the urban cores of superstar cities, the percentage of vacant office and commercial space has risen sharply since 2019, and house prices have grown more slowly than in suburbs and other cities.
The research was led by John Mischke, a partner at MGI in Zurich. Ryan Luby, senior knowledge specialist and associate partner in New York; Brian Vickery, partner in Boston; Jonathan Wotzel, MGI Director and Senior Partner in Shanghai; Olivia White, MGI Director and Senior Partner in San Francisco; Aditya Singhvi, Senior Partner in New York City; Rob Palter, senior partner in Toronto; Andre Dua, Senior Partner in Miami; and Sven Smit, Senior Partner in Amsterdam and Chairman of MGI. The project team was led by Jenny Ray, a consultant in San Francisco. Anna Fu, consultant in New York; Isabella Mayorga, Alumni; and Chris Longman, an alumnus. The team consisted of Christina Barentes, Maclean Fields, Lily Highman, Ricardo Huapaya, Marty Kong, Gabby Pierre, Jose Maria Queiroz, Akanksha Raina, Surya Tahliani, Paula Trejos, Valeria Valverde, Caitlin Wisserman and Cody Wollen.
We thank Professor Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University. Michael Joyce, Senior Managing Director, Greystar; Jonathan Lowry, Managing Partner, Realty Corporation; Janet Pogue McLaren, global director of workplace research, Gensler; Andrew Munn, Senior Vice President, RXR; Alan M. Taylor, professor at the University of California, Davis; and Johns Hopkins Carey Business School Professor Ko Wang, for kindly sharing his insights.
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The project benefited greatly from the experience and perspectives of many colleagues. Thanks to Colleen Baum, Gemma D’Auria, Kevin Heidenreich, Phil Kirschner, Dymfke Kuijpers, Adrian Kwok, Daniel Läubli, James Patchett, Ben Safran, Anthony Shorris and Alex Wolkomir.
The report was edited by MGI Senior Editor Benjamin Plotinsky, along with Senior Data Visualization Editor Chuck Burke and Editorial Operations Manager Visudha Gupta. We also thank our colleagues David Batcheck, Cecilia Bayer, Tim Beacom, Amanda Covington, Shannon Ensor, Vero Henze, Karen Jones, Stephen Landau, Janet Michaud, Diane Rice, Rebeca Robboy, Rachel Robinson, and Katie Shearer.
This research supports MGI’s mission to help business and political leaders understand the forces changing the global economy. As with all MGI research, it is independent and is not commissioned or sponsored in any way by any company, government or other entity.
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To what extent can the real estate sector suffer in superstar cities? In this study, the Global Institute modeled the future demand for office space, residential space and commercial space under various scenarios. Others, such as industrial space and self-storage space, are outside the scope of the research. In these scenarios, demand for office and commercial space is generally lower in 2030 than in 2019, although the decline predicted in our moderate scenario is smaller than many other researchers estimate. Our analysis also shows that the effects of conflicts will be complex – for example, that certain types of cities and neighborhoods will be more affected than others. We consider a wide range of factors, including long-term population trends; employment trends, such as the ongoing impact of automation; office attendance patterns by sector; Employee coordination, defined as the maximum proportion of workers in the office at a given time; ages and incomes of workers; The portion of a city’s population that commutes daily from elsewhere. housing price differences between neighborhoods; and shopping trends, such as the continued growth of online shopping. In addition to many secondary sources, our modeling includes information from a large global survey that we conducted to understand behavioral changes caused by the pandemic.
We conducted this research during a period of extraordinary macroeconomic uncertainty. Inflation and interest rates are high; fear of deepening recession; Stress in the financial system has been in the headlines. Actual results, of course, will depend on how these variables and others behave.
What is certain is that urban real estate in superstar cities around the world faces considerable challenges. And these challenges can threaten the financial health of cities, many of which are already struggling to address homelessness, transit needs and other critical issues. But the challenges also provide an opportunity to stimulate the historical transformation of urban spaces. By becoming more flexible and adaptable in everything from the structure of neighborhoods to the design of buildings – in essence, becoming more “hybrid” themselves – superstar cities can not only adapt, but thrive.
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During the pandemic, attendance of workers at offices decreased. Freed from their daily commutes, urban dwellers moved away from urban centers in greater numbers (and fewer people moved there) than before the pandemic, and people spent less in urban stores (see sidebar, “ How We Define Cities”). Emigration rates have now returned to pre-pandemic trends, but our research suggests that few of those who left will return and urban shopping will not fully recover.
The report tracks real estate in superstar cities – broadly speaking, cities with a disproportionate share of urban GDP and global GDP growth. We have borrowed the term and concept from the 2018 MGI Report.
, we usually refer to a large metropolitan area. Our analysis generally divides this metropolitan area into two parts.
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, which refers to everything outside the urban center. For example, when we talk about the urban core of San Francisco, we mean San Francisco County, Alameda County, and San Mateo County. And when we talk about the suburbs of San Francisco, we’re referring to the rest of the San Francisco metropolitan area (ie Marin County and Contra Costa County).
We focus more on nine superstar cities: Beijing, Houston, London, New York, Paris, Munich, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo. However, in the survey that informs much of this report, we collected data from a larger set of 17 superstar cities in six countries to better understand behavior. At one point in our research, we were able to extend our analysis to a larger set of 24 superstar cities to help us identify patterns of suburbanization.
According to our research, employees still spend far less time working in the office than they did before the pandemic. In the early 2020s, as they embraced remote work and hybrid work in response to lockdowns and health concerns, office attendance in the metropolitan areas we studied fell by 90 percent. It has recovered substantially since then but is down about 30 percent on average. As of October 2021, office workers come to the office about 3.5 days a week. The number varied between cities, from 3.1 days in London to 3.9 in Beijing. (For more information on the survey, see the Technical Appendix.)
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Office attendance also varies by sector and neighborhood. Among large companies in the knowledge economy – which we define as the professional services, information and financial industries – employees commute to the office fewer days per week (Table E1). According to our research on US counties, areas with low office density are characterized by expensive housing, a high ratio of commuters to residents, and a small share of retail. Local culture also plays a role.
Figure Description: A dot plot reporting the number of days workers worked per week in an office in 15 industries. Professional services and information are the lowest at 3.2 to 3.3 days, while agriculture, mining and transportation are the highest at 3.8 to 4 days. The second dot plot shows the same information for all sectors, broken down by company size. Large businesses with 1,000 or more employees had the lowest at 3 to 3.3 days, and small businesses with fewer than 100 employees had the highest at 3.6 to 3.8 days. End of image description.
There are several reasons to believe that current office attendance rates can be maintained. First, rates have been fairly stable since mid-2022. Second, three significant numbers: the number of days respondents go to the office per week (3.5),
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